Löwen am Rande des Abgrunds: Afrikas Rudel ist bedroht!

Africa’s lion population is in decline, and new research co-led by the University of Oxford’s Wildlife Conservation Research Unit (WildCRU) has revealed disturbing data about these losses, alongside new insight into conservation strategies.

For decades, WildCRU has played a major role in extensive lion monitoring projects across Africa, projects which have revealed that whilst the total population of wild lions in Africa is estimated to be between 20,000 and 25,000 individuals, many of these live within fragmented populations at risk of disappearing.

Dwindling lion populations

The African lion inhabits 25 countries, but nearly half of these have fewer than 250 individuals, and eight counties have only a single wild lion population. Additionally, less than half of the 62 known wild populations have over 100 lions.

“Lions are one of the most iconic species in the world, but are undergoing devastating declines,” says Professor Amy Dickman, Director of WildCRU and co-lead author of the Communications Earth & Environment study. “This comprehensive analysis is the first to look at both ecological and socio-political risk factors facing lions at scale, and demonstrates the size of the challenge.”

For example, smaller lion populations or higher densities of people and livestock would likely be more ecologically fragile, while higher levels of corruption or lower GDP per capita would contribute to greater socio-political fragility. These factors were integrated into a single overall fragility index, and each lion population was compared relative to the others.

Uniting these two indices provided interesting comparisons: for example, both Sudan and Benin have a single known lion population with roughly the same number of lions. However, Benin is relatively stable and prosperous, whilst Sudan is currently involved in a civil war with people fleeing in the millions, affecting the ability of park rangers or others to help ensure the survival of Sudan’s lions.

“Some populations may ultimately have similar fragility scores, but they are driven by different threats. Thus, while on the surface, the lone lion populations in Sudan and Benin may appear similar, they likely require different levels of investment and perhaps even different types of intervention for conservation to succeed,” Professor Dickman said.

“Pouring money into conserving Sudan’s lions may be relatively ineffective unless the socio-political factors such as the civil war are dealt with first.”

A challenging future

Lions, particularly in Africa, face a challenging future. With rapidly growing anthropogenic pressures on natural resources, including human-induced threats like habitat loss, prey depletion, and human-wildlife conflict, lions are increasingly being pushed to the brink.

However, conservation efforts are having some success. For example, WildCRU has a long history of lion conservation work in Africa with several sites where long-term engagement with conservation authorities and local communities has significantly reduced threats to lions and improved the conservation outlook for them, as well as for other species.

Almost all of the remaining African lion range is within countries that rank in the 25% poorest countries in the world and the new findings emphasise the moral responsibility of wealthier nations to contribute more extensively to lion conservation. Researchers estimate that the costs of protecting all the remaining African lions could be as high as US$3 billion annually.

Professor Dickman says: ‘Conservation science is important to guide action, but this research highlights the invaluable role that politicians, economists, development experts and others must play if we are to safeguard lions and other biodiversity, in ways which also enable rural development rather than stand in its way.’